Mitigating uncertainty in wind power generation

2007 Impact statement

abstract

This project seeks to enhance the ability of wind farms to participate actively in deregulated electricity markets. This would allow higher levels of wind generation to be included in the power generation portfolios in the northeast United States while minimizing the impact on power system security.

submitted by

issue being addressed

As renewable portfolio standards and carbon emission restrictions take effect, the importance of sustainable sources of energy is becoming paramount. Wind generation is a highly sustainable source of energy, but an uncertain one. This creates problems both for the generator, in estimating the revenues achievable, and system operators, in maintaining adequate reserves and system security. If wind generators can be coupled with other renewable sources and this uncertainty reduced, then regional power systems will be able to sustain higher levels of wind generation in their generation mix. Until that time, wind generators cannot hope to exceed 15 percent to 20percent of the generation mix, and producers cannot earn sufficient return on their investments, without government subsidies.
This project aims to assess potential renewable sources for pairing, and a decision framework for implementing the pairings. The results of this project will be of interest to power system operators, such as the NYISO and ISO-ne, policy makers, as well as generator/investors. The study focuses on wind generation potential in the northeast United States.

response

Since project inception in 2007, we have examined wind data from a number of sites in New England. We have conducted a statistical analysis of the wind speed data and wind generation at each site. In addition, we have begun to examine the economic and operational feasibility of pairing wind resources at these sites with demand response resources (DRR) in the same region. It appears that ISO-ne does have enough DRR in the system to implement such a pairing on an experimental scale.
The next steps of the project are: 1) to consider the power system network effects and answer the questions of proximity between paired resources, 2) to examine the system costs of uncertainty at a more detailed level, and 3) to assess the feasibility of other potential pairing resources.
The interim findings of this work have been presented to a review panel from the Department of Energy, as well subjected to peer review through the Power Systems group at the Hawaii International Conference for System Sciences.

impact assessment

As this study has just begun, we cannot assess any quantitative benefits at this time. However, it is hoped that the end result will be a great acceptance of wind and other renewables as feasible options for power generation in the future. This would impact decision-making with the power system operators, such as the NYISO, iso-NE, and PJM. A higher level of reliability in wind generation will result in lower financial risk and higher levels of investment in wind generation projects.

academic priority area

has geographic focus

funding source description

Department of Energy - Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions.

key personnel

  • Timothy D. Mount
  • Judith B. Cardell

mission focus

From CALS annual faculty reporting. Imported on August 5, 2008