Based on feedback from a team of stakeholders, initial research efforts will focus on segregating the existing east coast winter storm climatology into subsets depicting impact magnitude. This will allow a rating system to be devised that quantifies the potential for coastal impacts and allows for the computation of storm return frequencies that are tied to impact magnitude. Modification of existing seasonal forecasting procedures to reflect impact severity as opposed to overall storm frequency (including those with little or no impact) will also be investigated. The Cornell Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science will lead these research efforts. Operational implementation of the climatological decision tools and potentially seasonal storm activity outlooks will be the responsibility of the NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center. This established center will allow the operational aspects of this work to continue beyond the funding periods. Likewise, the N.Y. Sea Grant Program will take the lead in the extension and outreach components of the proposed work. Their efforts will be twofold, serving as both a liaison to the decision maker team as well as a mechanism for educating emergency managers and other coastal interests (including the general public) about the use of the climatological tools and forecasts. The Sea Grant program also brings expertise in effective communication of our results via both electronic and print media. The network of coastal decision makers that are accessible through Sea Grant will be instrumental in assuring the climatological tools developed will be valued and used in decision support. In addition, this network will allow for evaluation of the project based on feedback from an independent group of decision makers not initially involved in the project.

Despite total impacts that exceed those associated with tropical storms, emergency managers, coastal managers, and engineers are faced with a dearth of information concerning the climatology of east coast winter storms. This proposed work leverages the unique capabilities of existing research, extension, and operational centers to create decision support tools related to east coast winter storm frequency and impacts. The work has its basis in published NSF-sponsored research as well as a preliminary workshop focused on soliciting practical applications for the existing east coast winter storm climatology and empirical seasonal frequency forecast procedure.

To date, we have focused on linking the east coast winter storms to coastal flooding impacts on Long Island. We have focused on two long-term tide gauges, Willets Point on the western end of Long Island and Montauk Point on the eastern end. For those storms that produced the largest surges at Montauk and Willets Points, we have isolated sets of meteorological characteristics. These differentiate high surge events from those producing more common (i.e. below the 90th percentile) surges. The most notable characteristics of the big surge events are their position relative to the coast, as they tend to occur at more westerly longitudes. In addition, the largest surge events are associated with longer storm duration, higher wind speeds and lower pressure as would be expected. The effect of storm duration is more pronounced at Willets Point than at Montauk. The primary focus of the outreach portion of this project has been working with decision team members to identify the most important coastal processes associated with ECWSs and to identify and collect local data on these processes that can be used in developing storm climatologies that incorporate coastal impacts. Interviews with local officials have provided a list of storm events between 1989 and 2004 for which local advisories have been issued on the south shore. Storm histories dating back to the 1900s have also been assembled from pertinent reports from state and federal agencies involved with emergency response and coastal management. Various government officials have been briefed on the study.

Due to the early stages of this project we are not able to gauge the impact. However, the benefits of this work will be far-reaching, including public safety, shoreline protection, and economic.

• Dale Baker
• Jay Tanski